No good advice - Deal of the Week #14

Here's a Deal of the Week where I really messed up.

I have a good memory for bridge hands. Even though I didn't write anything down, and wasn't even playing, I can remember all of the contracts from yesterday lunch time, and the layout of all the cards on each deal (at least the distribution of each hand and the honour cards). So remembering this one is pretty painful.

The result was 3NT-5, after declarer followed my advice. With better advice, it could have gone a lot better, and is actually a really nice hand. Here's the full deal and auction.

♠ x x x ♥ Q J T x ♦ A 9 x x x ♣ x ♠ x x ♥ K x ♦ x ♣ K Q J T x x x x 7 9 9 15 ♠ A Q J x ♥ x x x x x ♦ Q x x ♣ x ♠ K x x x ♥ A x ♦ K J T x ♣ A x x

AP JW ID NC W N E S 1NT - 2♦ - 2♠ - 3♥ - 3NT - - -

South opened 1NT, showing 15-17 and a balanced hand. Textbook. West had a think, but decided to pass, even though he could have made a natural 2♣ overcall. The auction after that looks a bit strange, but bear in mind there's no conventions here like Stayman or transfers. North bid a natural 2♦, South a natural 2♠, then North a natural 3♥. NC sitting South then had a choice, 3NT or 5♦. With my encouragement he went for 3NT (I stand by that decision, the blunders come later).

Against 3NT AP sitting West lead an obvious ♣K. Declarer ducked this and won the second round, East showing out. It's now pretty clear that West has a lot of Clubs. To make his nine tricks declarer is going to need one Spade, two Hearts, five Diamonds and one Club. That means that East has to have both the ♠A and ♥K, which is quite likely seeing as West didn't overcall despite having that big Club suit. You can see that on this layout declarer is doomed to fail, as West has the ♥K, but there's failing with honour and going five off vulnerable. I directed NC to the -500.

After winning the ♣A, you have a dilemma tackling Diamonds. The safe way to play, to keep West off lead, is to finesse West. But since East is so much more likely to have the Queen (and you need five Diamond tricks), you should probably finesse East. We didn't do that though, and lost a Diamond to East. When he returned a Heart we played low, and it was game over. West won the ♥K, ran his Clubs, and the defence had a riot.

The smart way to play is to get the Diamonds right, then run the suit. West will be forced to throw away his Spades and some Clubs to keep his ♥K guarded. So in fact the defence will only get four Clubs and one Heart, for 3NT-1. A lot better. Even if you get the Diamonds wrong (like we did) you should go up with the Heart Ace and run the Diamond suit, to force West to throw away some winners.

Don't underestimate the power of running a long suit